Which of the following will have the greatest impact on asset values and profit?
By 2026, 8+ millions Teslas will be robotaxi-capable.
How many Starlink satellites will be able to provide 4G/5G mobile communication directly?
The FCC approved an 8X increase in power on March 7, 2025. This will allow Spacex Starlink to connect directly to cellphone internet with speeds ranging from 4G to 5. What happened and what it does can be explained by physics and engineering.
STARLINK satellites are testing the text-to-phone service for emergencies caused by hurricanes. T mobile and other companies have also been able to participate in a beta test. The voice-over-internet service is expected to be available in the second half 2025. SpaceX has already secured 261 millions potential customers through the eight phone companies who have signed on.
Cell towers are not needed in 80-90%. The capital expenditures and operational costs of cell towers are tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars for the phone companies.
Cell Tower Capital Expenditure
CapEx includes network infrastructure such as towers, spectrum and equipment. GSMA Intelligence predicts that mobile operators will spend $1.5 trillion on CapEx globally between 2023 and 2030, of which 75% is tied to 5G. This is roughly $190 billion per year over an eight-year period. Tower construction costs have historically ranged from $200,000 up to $275,000 for each tower. Assuming 1 million existing towers and 60 000 new towers are required (per IHS Group’s estimates of Africa only), replacement or new build CapEx will be significant, but it is spread out over many decades.
Major U.S. companies report that they spend $1-2 billion annually on tower CapEx. This is equivalent to $5 Billion for the 150,000 U.S. Towers. If we extrapolate globally, tower companies could spend up to $30-40 billion per year on upgrades, new tower builds (e.g. 5G) and maintenance CapEx for a million towers. Most towers are leased by phone companies, rather than built, and their CapEx is focused on spectrum and equipment, instead of tower construction.
Paying Tower Providers and Operational Spending (OpEx).
OpEx is the sum of tower lease payments and maintenance costs, as well as network operations. WIA estimates that network OpEx in the U.S. will be $46 billion by 2022. This includes 142,100 small cells and 452,200 towers. OpEx for a million towers could be $300-400 Billion annually, globally, when scaling by the tower count. The U.S. is a major player in the tower lease payment. Carriers pay between $1,500 and $3,000 per month for each tower or from $18,000 to $36,000 per year. Global lease payments for 1 million towers could amount to $18-36 Billion annually. However, costs can vary greatly (e.g. lower in Africa because of cheaper land and labour).
Based on U.S. benchmarks, the total CapEx/OpEx of phone companies is likely to exceed $500-600 Billion annually. Of that, approximately 5-10% (between $25-60 billion) will be paid for tower leases and upkeep.
The traditional networks only cover 73% of Africa, but 20-30% (and 90%) of the world’s landmasses and oceans are left unconnected. Starlink’s planned 7500 direct-to cell satellites would provide omnipresent coverage. This feat could be worth billions of dollars in terms of economic and social impact.
Size of the Market and its Value
Global mobile service revenues are estimated to be around $1 trillion per year (GSMA 2023). Dead zones are lost revenue. For example, T-Mobile reports 500,000 square mile of dead zones in the U.S. The market size is $192 billion if 20% of global population (1,6 billion people) do not have reliable coverage and they each pay $10/month for connectivity. Starlink could see its market value increase if it can tap into this and provide premium services, such as maritime or aviation.
Tower leases in telecom take up 5-15%, while wholesale models, such as MVNOs, share 20-50% of revenue with infrastructure providers. Starlink’s end-to-end services, which include replacing towers with fiber and providing service in remote locations, could lead to a larger share.
Starlink might receive 30-50% of a rural $10/month subscriber’s fee (common for Africa and Asia). The carrier would retain the remaining 50-70%. With $50/month plans in the U.S. a 20%-40% revenue share would yield $10-20 for each subscriber. Globally, an average 30% revenue share is plausible when balancing Starlink infrastructure costs (satellite launches, millions spent on operations) with carrier margins.
Spending by phone companies: $500 to 600 billion per year on CapEx and OpEx. $25-60 billion is paid annually to providers of towers for a million towers.
Starlink 5G’s value is estimated to be between $50 and $100 billion, if dead zones are eliminated globally.
Share of revenue: Approximately 30% per subscriber.
With 500 million users: $18-36 Billion annually. Scaling with ARPU and adoption.
Brian Wang, a Futurist and Science Blogger with over 1,000,000 monthly readers is one of the most popular Futurists. Nextbigfuture.com, his blog is the #1 Science News Blog. The blog covers a wide range of disruptive technologies and trends, including Space, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence. It also includes Medicine, Antiaging Biotechnology and Nanotechnology.
He is known for his ability to identify cutting-edge technologies. He currently serves as a co-founder of a company and a fundraiser for early stage companies with high potential. He is Head of Research for Allocations for Deep Technology Investments and an Angel investor at Space Angels.
He is a frequent corporate speaker. In addition, he’s been a TEDx Speaker, a Singularity University Speaker, and a guest on numerous radio interviews and podcasts. He accepts public speaking engagements and advisory roles.
