In reviewing my Tesla analysis of two weeks ago, I would like to highlight key points and provide more context.
In my opinion, 2025 will be similar to what we saw in 2020. The stock price in 2020 went from $15 at the end of 2019 to 60 by February 21, 2020. It then fell to $28 on March 21, 2020. And then it continued to rise to almost $300 by January 2021. The rest of 2020 was marked by three to four dips and pauses.
If support is broken today at $330, $270 becomes a possible outcome. This could go as low as $250, but it would not have the same volatility (over 50%) of 60 to 28 dollars that was seen in early 2020. The price of $488 drops to between $250 and 270.
The $350-under range is a zone to buy in as the price will rise sharply with new models of cars, robotaxis without supervision and FSD licenses. The majority of these will be realized between April and June 2025. It is not a good strategy to be too tactical and pick the bottom exact. But I’m not offering investment advice. Just a general overview of the structure, based on recent events that can vary by up to three months. Multiple important events are taking place.
Stocks are vulnerable because of Q1 ramp-up for the new Model Y. The Q1 numbers will be lower. These numbers will be released on April 2. There is information available from China’s weekly registrations for insurance. Monthly China export, production and delivery numbers are available.
It is important to me that the numbers for China return to 20,000 per week. The ramp-up and ramp of suppliers will be evident.
It is necessary to do this so the low-cost models can be launched in Q2 of 2025. Suppliers will have to triple and double the number of parts needed for a Model Y ramped up and new models.
Nvidia was a good example before Chatgpt. Nvidia traded between $31-32 per share in November 2021. In October 2022, it dropped to just $11. By the end 2023, it was only $48. By mid-2024, it was $130. Was it a mistake for you to have bought at $31 back in November 2021? What about $20 in April 2022? What about $16-18 by August 2022?
The Grok 3 is to be followed by Grok 4 with 11X training computer. Installation of the training cluster as well as natural gas turbines will take about 90 days.
The XAI and Tesla collaboration will allow for larger clusters to benefit from FSD-related training.
The FSD, XAI and training cluster have all been described in detail.
What can I expect from lower-priced models?
Brian Wang, a Futurist and Science Blogger with over 1,000,000 monthly readers is one of the most popular Futurists. Nextbigfuture.com, his blog is the #1 Science News Blog. The blog covers a wide range of disruptive technologies and trends, including Space, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence. It also includes Medicine, Antiaging Biotechnology and Nanotechnology.
He is known for his ability to identify cutting-edge technologies. He currently serves as a co-founder of a company and a fundraiser for early stage companies with high potential. He is Head of Research for Allocations for Deep Technology Investments and an Angel investor at Space Angels.
He is a frequent corporate speaker. In addition, he’s been a TEDx Speaker, a Singularity University Speaker, and a guest on numerous radio interviews and podcasts. He accepts public speaking engagements and advisory roles.
