Tesla’s patent 2025/015194A1, (“Cathode Powder and Processes”) describes a process for manufacturing lithium iron phosphate cathode material for the Tesla 4660 batteries. The mixing, granulation and heating processes have been simplified. Recently, this patent of over 100 pages was published.
The LFP Manufacturing Patent, WO2025015194A1, of @Tesla has just been published. pic.twitter.com/3PoF1blnfa
— SETI Park (@seti_park) January 16, 2025
Tesla allowed and timed it to go public only after significant progress in executing the process.
Combining information from former Tesla VP Drew Baglino, reports by industry observers such as Jordan Giesige from The Limiting Factor and broader rumors regarding Tesla’s LFP timetable I believe the Tesla LFP battery gets released in 2026. This is the way we will get there. Tesla’s progress and
Details of the Patent
This patent describes an streamlined method to make LFP cathode. The process is much simpler and cheaper than the traditional method, as I explain in this article. The emphasis is on scalable production, using iron-based material, which aligns with Tesla’s goals of reducing reliance upon nickel and cobalt, while also undercutting its competitors including Chinese LFP producers who are not subject to tariffs. Drew Baglino who left Tesla 2024 said that this process would make Tesla’s LFP more affordable than China’s even without tariffs. This implies significant optimization by the time Baglino commented. It’s possible that Tesla’s been perfecting the process since at least 2022, given that this patent was published in 2025. LinkedIn profiles for Tesla engineers indicate that Tesla had LFP-cathode tests large enough to run hundreds of cars. Tesla’s battery history suggests that they do not publish patents before they are confident of their execution. The 4680 dry electrodes process announced in 2020 took until 2023 for meaningful production volume (20 million cells before October 2023) LFP’s cathode technology is not as radical as Tesla’s dry electrodes, but it is innovative. The process will follow a multi-year path of development, which puts Tesla in the position to adopt it fairly soon after its patent is released.
The rumored timelines and factory adjustments provide clues as to when Tesla could roll out LFP-4680 batteries. Tesla had reportedly been developing the LFP 4680 cells in October 2024. This included a “Workhorse”, based on the NC05, for cars like the Cybertruck and Semi. It is possible that LFP 4680s have already been tested and production could begin in 2025. Bloomberg reported that Tesla’s Sparks facility expansion in Nevada, which was announced by Tesla in January 2024, is aimed at localizing LFP supply chain, suggesting factory adjustments have already begun.
It can take 12-24 months to adjust a factory’s cathode technology, depending on the scale of production and infrastructure. Nevada produces 4680s already (although with NCM-based chemistry), so retrofitting to LFP may be quicker–potentially within 6-18 months, especially if Tesla had planned this switch since 2022. Jordan Giesige, from The Limiting Factor’s February 2025 video analysis of Tesla’s patent for cathodes noted its ability to reduce production costs and simplify the process. He predicted that Tesla would be able to scale this process by 2025 using existing 4680 production lines, with little retooling required due to its compatibility with the current equipment. Jordan’s analyses are in line with the rumors that Tesla plans to incorporate LFP4680s into mass market vehicles by 2025capitalizing on Baglino’s cost-savings. Typical Implementation Schedule
A Development Headstart: Tesla began LFP work many years ago. The patent publication of 2025 reflects mature technology that is ready to be deployed.
Factory Ready: Based on the Nevada expansion, and 4680 production in progress, adjustments to LFP can be made by late 2025. This assumes 6-12 months of development from early 2025. Market pressure: Tesla’s drive for affordability (e.g. a $25,000 electric vehicle) and the competition between Chinese manufacturers such as CATL and BYD encourage a rapid launch, which is likely to target 2025-2026. Rumors, and variants: Testing reports and the “Workhorse LFP 4680” variant point towards pilot production starting in 2025. Volume production will follow in 2026.
The patented production process could allow them to begin the pilot production of LFP4680 batteries in Q3 or Q4 2025. Factory adjustments would be largely completed by that time.
Full-scale implementation–powering vehicles like the Cybertruck or a new affordable model–would likely hit in Q1-Q2 2026. Elon Musk has a history of setting ambitious goals, but then delaying them by six to twelve months (e.g. the Cybertruck’s delivery was pushed back from 2021 until 2023). Cost Advantage in China
Baglino’s claim that Tesla’s LFP cost is lower than untariffed Chinese LFP prices hinges on the simplified process and Vertical Integration. China’s LFP advantage is due to its low labor costs, mature supply chain and skilled workforce. However, Tesla’s use of local resources as well as their ability to reduce production steps could offset these advantages. This could lower Tesla’s LFP battery costs to below China’s $0.044/watt-hour benchmark (2024), reshaping EV batteries.
Summary
Tesla is likely to implement the LFP4680 battery in two stages: Pilot production by the end of 2025 and volume production at the beginning 2026. The factory adjustments may already be underway, which will allow for a quick transition. It fits with Tesla’s past, industry rumors and Jordan’s analyses, allowing them to quickly deliver low-cost LFP battery and compete against China’s dominance. Brian Wang, a Futurist and Science Blogger with over 1,000,000 monthly readers
is an influential Futurist thought leader. Nextbigfuture.com, his blog is the #1 Science News blog. The blog covers a wide range of disruptive technologies and trends, including Space, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence. It also includes Medicine, Antiaging Biotechnology and Nanotechnology. He is a co-founder of a high-potential early-stage company and a fundraiser.
Recognized for his ability to identify cutting-edge technologies. He is Head of Research for Allocations for Deep Technology Investments and an Angel investor at Space Angels. He is a frequent speaker for corporations. In addition, he was a TEDx Speaker, a Singularity University Speaker, and a guest on numerous radio and podcast interviews. He accepts public speaking engagements and advisory roles.
