The greatest challenge humanity faces is food security. Climate experts claim that half of the world’s crops could be at risk, and geopolitical risks disrupt global supply chains. It’s easy for people to believe there is little hope, until they meet Jack Bobo.
Bobo, speaking at The Next Generation of Food Conference held in Wageningen said that he believes strongly that the global food is an important success story.
Gunhild Anker Stordalen, who is also a firm believer in this statement, agrees with him.
She says that the global food system is a huge success. It has achieved what was intended, namely producing large quantities of meat and cheap calories at scale. Thanks to advances in agriculture, including crop science, irrigation, fertilisers, and pesticides the per-person calorie supply has more than doubled from 1940.
This means there is actually 50 percent more energy than needed to feed our current population of 8 billion. This is because the calories are not distributed evenly, and some countries suffer obesity epidemics while other nations face famine.
Bobo believes that food production has been moving in the right directions. He recently assumed the position of Executive Director at the Rothman Family Institute for Studies UCLA.
Globally, CO2 emissions from food are declining. The industry has undergone systemic changes, including the use of regenerative farming, reducing food waste and using energy efficient production methods.
The importance of biodiversity in the future security of food is also gaining rapid attention among governments all over the world. To protect the environment and reverse ecosystem degradation, The European Union established its “comprehensive” and “ambitious” Biodiversity Strategy. The African Union launched its Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. In the UK, a National Biodiversity Strategy And Action Plan was created to combat biodiversity loss.
As important as it is to safeguard future food security, the system has a major flaw – its speed.
Bobo says, “In many respects the situation is not getting worse and in fact it’s improving.” Bobo says, “They’re good and improving.” “But not quickly enough.”
Food security for the future
Innovation is the key to future food security. Bobo says that people are as eager to embrace innovation as they are to resist change. One is clearly hurting the other.
He says that the problem is we ask people to make sacrifices for the future rather than to embrace it. We need to alter the narrative.
Bobo says that the way we speak about it determines whether people will resist or work together with us in order to get better quicker.
Today, ten percent of the people on earth go to sleep hungry. In 30 years, that number was 20% and in 60 years it was 30%.
Bobo says that a particular number can be unacceptable, but it is still vastly better than the previous situation. Understanding the past allows us to better appreciate the present, and help prepare for the next.
The child mortality rate is low and declining. Total under-five mortality worldwide dropped from 12,8m deaths in 1990 to 4,8m. Number of neonatal death has decreased from 5.2m in 1990 to 2.3m today (World Health Organization).
Bobo says that the world has become a much better place. Bobo: “On the same land we have today, we produce more cereals than in 1960. This has increased faster than global population. That’s why hunger as a proportion of population is down.”
He says that industry needs to concentrate on ways it can collaborate with consumers and farmers to speed up innovation to bring about positive changes.
In the history of agricultural development, the next 25 years will be the most significant.
Jack Bobo is a Rothman Family Institute for Studies UCLA
Suppliers, manufacturers, retailers and consumers should also plan for the food system of the future, rather than relying on the current system.
Bobo says, “We must stop planning for the present and start creating the future of our dreams.”
Population growth will not continue forever. The global population will peak around 10,3bn by the middle of the 1980s (United Nations).
The food industry will not need to increase production indefinitely, but only until population levels peak. To get there, all stakeholders in the industry will need to work together.
Bobo says that the next 25 years will be the most crucial in agriculture’s history. We need to do it right.
He is still convinced that this can be done.
He says, “We can improve.” We can both have a sustainable and better future.