In the coming 25 years, a third of all children and teenagers will be obese as obesity continues to spread across the globe.
The analysis by the Global Burden of Diseases Study BMI Collaboration, which was published in The Lancet to mark World Obesity Day on 4 March, shows that there are 3.8 billion adults worldwide and 746 million children & adolescents.
The study claims that “massive” failures at the global level to combat the obesity epidemic are responsible. In 1990 there were 731m obese and overweight adults in the world. This number will rise to 2,11bn by 2021.
In 2021, it was estimated that a quarter (1bn men and 1,11bn women aged 25 years or older) of adults worldwide were overweight or obese. Between 1990 and 2021, the prevalence of obesity in adult males (from 5,8% to 14,8%) as well as women (10.2%-20.8%) more than doubled.
In 1990, there were 198m overweight children. By 2021 that number will rise to 493m.
By 2050, how many obese people are you expecting to see?
The number of obese children and teenagers will rise by 121% globally, reaching 360m in 2050.
The unprecedented epidemic of obesity and overweight is a tragedy and a failure of society, said Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington in USA.
Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East are countries with high obesity rates. In 2021, over 62% adult males from Nauru and Cook Islands and 71% adult females living in Tonga or Nauru will be obese.
In 2021, obesity was the most prevalent in high-income nations, with 42% of men and 46% females.
What countries in Europe are more obese? Image: European Commission
In 2050 the sub-Saharan Africa population is expected to increase by more than 250%, to reach 522m. Population growth will drive the overall increase.
Eurostat reports that in Europe, 51% of people aged 16 or older are obese.
Awoke Temesgen is a clinical associate professor at IHME and co-author of the study. She said that obesity rates in sub-Saharan Africa are on the rise. By 2050, more than 522 million adults, including 200 million young people, will be obese or overweight.
This has doubled the burden on already stretched healthcare systems, which are not equipped to deal with the unprecedented rise of obesity-related diseases.
Stopping the rise in global obesity
Tamesgen said that urgent action was needed in order to implement preventative measures, such as policies on marketing unhealthy food and increasing outdoor activities for children.
The report states that younger generations are becoming obese faster, and they’re more likely to develop diabetes, cancer, heart disease, etc. at a younger age.
The authors call for urgent action to reduce obesity and set new targets and goals in the post-2030 Sustainable Development Goal era. Authors call for more coordinated efforts to provide comprehensive and transdisciplinary interventions that are tailored to the unique socio-demographics, economic, environment, and commercial situations of each country.
Obesity and its diseases The diseases associated with obesity.
The co-lead researcher Dr Jessica Kerr of the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Australia said: “Preventing Obesity must be the foremost policy in countries with low and middle incomes.”
The policy action must be balanced between the problems of undernutrition, overnutrition, and stunting. Interventions can range from promoting maternal health programs that encourage women to breastfeed and follow healthy eating habits to supporting nutritional diets.
Kerr said that a business-as-usual approach isn’t good enough. “This is not the right time”, she added, pointing out how many countries have only a small window to prevent disproportionately more people from becoming obese.”
